What are some of the cognitive biases that we have, under this idea of behavioral finance, that impact us as syndicators and fund managers? This is part two of a six-part series that we’re doing on behavioral finance. This part is broken into three videos. The first part was just that first video to go through what behavioral finance is. The second part, which is comprised of three videos itself, is going to go through what the cognitive biases are that we have. And then the third part is going to go over the remaining six different kinds of emotional biases we have. I know you’re going to like this series. This is part two, where we’re going to start talking about cognitive biases.
Cognitive biases are biases that lead to faulty decision making. It’s a fault or error in our ability to make a decision properly, an error in the logic itself. So it’s not anything emotional. It’s part of the rational part of us that we’re trying to use to apply to make rational decisions, but an error occurs. There are a total of nine different biases, and we’re going to go through three of them.
Let’s go to the whiteboard. These are the nine different biases in the cognitive space. Today, we’re going to talk just about these first three: conservatism, confirmation, and control. We’ll talk about the other ones in the next videos.
What is conservatism? Conservatism is a cognitive bias that says when we get new information, we ignore it. We choose, for whatever reason, to ignore it. If you know what the Bayesian framework is, it’s saying there’s this many people in group A and this many in Group B. We know that there’s this likelihood of these events occurring. It’s actually a very formal process where we can figure out what any statistic is based on the sets we’re using. As a new element gets added to that, as a new pool of resources or a new statistic comes in, something that should shift our analysis, we’re discounting it. So we’re maintaining our original analysis. That’s what conservatism is.
Similar but different is this idea of confirmation bias. You might have heard of confirmation bias. This is certainly one that I think a lot of syndicators have. I know that it’s something I have to watch out for myself. It’s very prevalent. I certainly am very guilty of it as well, but it is something that I actively try to stomp out in myself because it is so readily present.
Confirmation bias says okay, I’ve identified this thing as this thing. And when new information comes in, we’re getting this line here that says we’ve got A coming in. Okay, that’s good. Yep, see A, put that down on our list as another reason why. We got this second one, it’s another vote for A. Let’s put that down as another reason why. Oh, we got this thing in as B. All right, get rid of that. Okay, another piece of information is coming in. It’s A, great, let’s keep it. Another piece of information coming in, this one’s B. It doesn’t fit, so it’s out.
So it’s confirming, right? It’s taking in all the information. Unlike conservatism, it’s taking in that new information. But it’s only accepting that information that confirms our original analysis. It’s very prevalent out there. It’s really hard to change our minds. I’m sure that you see it not just in analysis of a building or analysis of an opportunity, or some sort of offer you’re putting together, but you certainly see it in politics, in media, and all sorts of things.
When it comes to doing a syndication or a fund and asset management, new information is coming in all the time. And facts are facts, right? So I can’t ignore the facts. But I do, because if it’s contradictory to what I already want it to be, I’m gonna ignore it nine times out of 10 if I’m not careful. So that’s confirmation bias. It’s really dangerous and so prevalent out there. Think about that in your own life, where do you have these issues about confirmation bias? I bet you have them.
The third topic of cognitive bias is what we call control bias. This is the thought that we have more control over something than we actually do. Let’s use real estate for an example. Say in this town, you’ve got 10 buildings. Now a new one pops up. Well, you’ve got 10 other buildings, and they’re all surrounding this building. And so surely you have control – you know the city council, you know everybody there, you know all the tenants in the area. The control bias is the misbelief that you have control over just this area, that anything that happens within here, you have some sort of leg up on the competition.
What this does is it over-develops a concentration in this area. A lot of people will ask me what I syndicate when I do a syndication. I make it pretty clear I don’t actually have an asset type that I stick to. It’s not part of my fit. I care about good deals. I have a whole laundry list of what fits in my fit and a very clear explanation of it. But one thing that is not there is asset type. Why? Because of this illusion of control.
I use that as an example because a lot of people think the other way. They think, “Well, I am a master of multifamily. I’ve been doing multifamily forever, I’ve got $15 trillion under my management, I know everything about it, I’ve got control over this, I’m gonna keep doing this, I am the best there is at this.” And you may be, you may absolutely have some special skill. But it also is an illusion of control. Because you may make assumptions on your risk profile because of these other 10 buildings that are here, about what’s going to happen here, because you have this belief that you have control over it.
So those are the first three of our cognitive biases: conservatism, confirmation, and control. In the next video, we’re going to go through the next three, which are representativeness, framing, and hindsight.
My name is Tilden Moschetti. I am a syndication attorney with the Moschetti Syndication Law Group, coming to you with this six-part series also because I’m an active syndicator and fund manager just like you. So I am a lawyer, we help people put together 506(b) and 506(c) offers, but I also put together my own deals. And so with these behavioral biases that we have, they’re certainly present in me as well. I thought it would be useful to make sure that we conveyed those to you as well, because I’m sure you’ll find them useful. And ultimately, what we’re all after is the same thing: get better returns to our investors so they keep investing with us. We can make the most amount of money that we can, they can make the most amount of money. Everybody’s happy. It’s a win-win.